Thursday, October 18, 2012

The POTUS Ain't Kidding- He's Got This

As we get closer to November 6 and this contentious 2012 presidential election season mercifully draws to a close, the high stakes of this election can stress political junkies and people who pay attention to politics like I do out at times.    The media wanting a horse race contest, being African-American and knowing that the Republicans do give a rat's anus about my people only adds to that anxiety

So to deal with that election induced anxiety I head over to sites like and play with the maps there.   FYI TransGriot readers, here's the way I think it will play out on November 6.  

When this election started President Obama's solidly in his corner states totaled to 201 electoral votes with Romney having a base electoral vote total of 191.  Eleven states, NV, CO, IA,WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC and FL totaling 176 electoral votes were considered battleground states at the beginning of this process.

Five of those 11 states, Nevada (6 EVs), WI (10 EV's), MI (16 EV's), PA (20 EV's) and NH (4 EV's) are now leaning toward Obama or considered in the POTUS column bringing him up to 263 electoral votes, just seven shy of the magic 270 mark and victory.  NC (15 EV's) is considered leaning to Romney, brining his total up to 206.  

Of the four remaining toss-up states, CO (9 EV's), VA (13 EV's), OH (18 EVs) and FL (29 EV's),  Ohio is the critical one for Romney as it is for any Republican candidate.    If President Obama holds OH, he can start writing his second inaugural speech because that gives him 281 electoral votes and four more years as POTUS 44 because there is no way Mittens can catch him even if Romney won VA, CO or FL.  

But Ohio is the critical one, which is why you'll see both tickets heading to Ohio and millions spent on commercials and GOP voter suppression tricks on an almost daily basis along with the other four states with North Carolina thrown in.   If the POTUS lost Ohio, all he has to do is win just one of those three remaining states in VA, CO, FL or any combination to get his second term. 

Romney must win all three states plus OH to become (yecch) the 45th president of the United States, and he's got problems in all four of them.  Ohio, Virginia and Colorado are leaning President Obama's way and it's a dead heat in Florida.

So nope, the POTUS wasn't being overconfident when he stated on the Tom Joyner Morning Show and 60 Minutes that he's going to win this election.    It's looking more likely that going to happen, but we still have a lot of work to do to ensure it does.


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