2012 Texans Watch-On To Foxborough!

The Texans over the month of December have not exactly shown us Houston fans they are the same squad that swaggered and dominated NFL competition through the first 12 games of the season. 

They entered their playoff game with an outlook as cloudy as the rainy overcast Houston weather that kept Reliant Stadium's roof closed and a fan base that had seen far too many of these NFL seasons that got our civic hopes up but ultimately crashed and burned for our local NFL franchise.

Well, the Texans have been saying all year they wanted to slay some demons and make new and wonderful NFL history for our city.  They took the first step in their road to the Super Bowl in their deja vu rematch with a Cincinnati Bengals squad that had won seven straight and wanted to slay a demon of its own in terms of not having won a playoff game in 22 years.

In front of a record crowd of 71,738 that included former Oilers great Earl Campbell the Bulls on Parade showed up Saturday along with a Texans offense at its clock controlling best.   They held the ball for nearly 39 minutes as Arian Foster rushed 32 times for 140 yards and a touchdown.


They are still having issues finishing drives with touchdowns as Shayne Graham's four field goals attests to.  It didn't help that Matt Schaub threw a pick six in the second quarter for a brief 7-6 Bengal lead but followed it up with a drive that led to a Graham field goal that put them up at the break 9-7.

But with the Bulls on Parade forcing turnovers and not allowing the Bengals a single third down conversion, the Texans sent the Bengals packing again with a nerve wracking 19-13 win.   

They now earn a return trip to Foxborough to play a rested New England Patriot squad that embarrassed them on national TV 42-14 last month to start their four game funk and that no one outside of Loop 610 thinks they can beat.   In fact the early Vegas line has them as 9 point underdogs.

We'll see next Sunday.

2012 TransGriot NFL Picks-Wild Card Weekend

The regular season prognostication contest between myself and Mr. Watts is over, and it came down to the last week and the last game of the 2012 NFL season.  

Specifically the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins one.   I went with RG3, Mike went with TR3 (Tony Romo, three interceptions).  I prevailed by one game after having as much as a seven game lead during the season. 

Best of all, I have the bragging rights over my fellow Texan until we crank this NFL prognostication competition up in September 2013 with me as defending champion.  

Week 17 records 
TransGriot  11-5
Mike Watts 10-6

2012 Final Season Records
TransGriot  163-92-1
Mike Watts 162-93-1

Speaking of champions, the road to next month's Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans gets started with Wild Card weekend.  Just to keep my championship NFL prognostication skills sharp I'll predict who I think will come out on top in these playoff games like last year all the way until the Super Bowl on February 3.  If Mike Watts puts his picks up on his blog I'll link to them as well. 

So let's get started with the 2012-13 TransGriot NFL playoff predictions, shall we? . 


Saturday NFL Wild Card Playoff Games 

Cincinnati at Houston

My 12-4 hometown NFL ballers weren't supposed to be playing this weekend.   They were 11-1 and had a stranglehold on the number one seed for the entire AFC playoffs until they dropped three of their last four games to play their way into Wild Card weekend. 

That means they stumbled their way into a deja vu rematch of their 2012 NFL wild card playoff matchup with the Bengals.   

And yeah, Mr Watts and the media had to bring up a painful memory for longtime Houston NFL fans. January 3 was the 20th anniversary of the Oilers playoff collapse against Buffalo that sowed the seeds of NFL civic discontent that led to them moving to Nashville in 1996.

Meanwhile the 10-6 Bengals enter this deja vu rematch on a bit of a roll   They won three of their last four and seven of their last eight in the second half of the season with only a 20-19 loss to Dallas on December 9 marring their record.  Houston area homeboy Andy Dalton will be motivated to flip the script of last year's playoff game and end their playoff futility streak.  The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since 1990. (ironically against against the Oilers) .

However, this game is being played at Reliant Stadium and the AFC South champion Texans, with 8 Pro Bowlers on this squad, are more than a little pissed off about their play down the stretch and making their NFL road to New Orleans harder.   This will be Matt Schaub's first playoff game as the Texans QB and he will be motivated to play well and show he is worthy of his Pro Bowl selection after a lousy December.  So will future defensive MVP JJ Watt and the Bulls on Parade defense. 

Despite what the NFL national pundits and haters like Shannon Sharpe and Keyshawn Johnson say, Texans in this one. 

Minnesota at Green Bay

The 10-6 Vikings won their last four games to edge the Bears for a playoff spot and beat Green Bay at Mall of America Stadium 37-34 in their 2012 regular season finale to get in.  They have the NFL's leading rusher in Adrian Peterson, who missed breaking Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record of 2105 by 9 yards.  AP has compiled 210 and 199 yard games in both NFC North divisional encounters with the Packers which the teams split.   

But the 11-5 Packers are playing this rubber match at Lambeau Field and have Aaron Rodgers on their sideline.  The Packers were 6-2 in the second half of the season and the NFC North Champs are getting healthy on the defensive side at the right time.  Peterson will probably rush for another 150 plus yards on the less than stellar Packers rushing defense, but if Vikings QB Christian Ponder doesn't play as well as he did last weekend and Aaron Rodgers is at his usual MVP level, it won't matter how many yards AP gains because their season will be over. 

Packers to take this one

Sunday NFL Wild Card Playoff Games


Indianapolis at Baltimore

Intriguing game on many levels.   The precocious rookie dominated Colts team that went 6-2 down the stretch and 9-3 under interim coach Bruce Arians as Pagano was on medical leave versus the injury plagued AFC North champion Ravens 4-4 second half season record.

Chuck Strong vs the Ravens being motivated to play well for their inspirational leader in LB Ray Lewis. 

Lewis announced he is retiring after a stellar NFL career, has an ESPN commentary job waiting when he does and returned for the playoffs after spending most of the season rehabbing a torn tricep muscle.   

There's the interesting note that this is the first time the 11-5 Colts will be playing a playoff game in Baltimore since sneaking out of town under cover of darkness to move to Indianapolis in 1984.  Longtime Ravens fans still haven't forgiven or forgotten that episode..  

You have the dynamic of former Colts head coach Jim Caldwell who is now the Ravens offensive coordinator. Chuck Pagano, the guy hired to replace Caldwell, spent several seasons in Baltimore and was the Ravens defensive coordinator prior to taking the Colts job

It's Houston homeboy Andrew Luck's first ever playoff game versus the inconsistent but playoff battle tested Joe Flacco.   They have quick strike capability with speedy rookie WR TY Hilton, veteran Reggie Wayne and a defense with playoff vets Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis still terrorizing NFL quarterbacks.    

But the Angry Birds have the playoff experience and made it to the AFC Championship game last year.  Can their defense carry this team one more time for their leader before he hangs it up or will Indy's youth be served before a hostile M&T Bank crowd?   And yeah, which Joe Flacco will show up?   How many carries will Ray Rice get? .  

Ravens will be motivated to win this one for Ray, the M&T Bank Stadium crowd will be fired up, and it will be the Ravens in a close one.


Seattle vs Washington

The most anticipated playoff game of the weekend involves two rookie quarterbacks spectacularly leading their teams in Rookie of the Year candidates Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III

2011 Heisman trophy winner RG3 is all that and four bags of chips.  Thanks to a 7-1 stretch run Griffin led the Redskins to a 10-6 record and their first NFC East title since 1999.  Seattle also went 7-1 in the second half of the season to finish 11-5.  One of those games was a 42-13 beat down of the NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field mere days after the Niners beat the New England Patriots in Foxborough.

The Seahawks defense is slightly better and especially their defensive secondary.   The Redskins D-line, like Seattle's has caused teams headaches during the second half of the season.   The Redskins offense is explosive and has rookie running back sensation Alfred Morris along with wide receivers Santana Moss and Pierre Garçon to complement RG3's world class sprinters speed.  

Seattle's offense isn't slouchy either.  Wilson is a better than average runner, and you have RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Golden Tate to throw into the offensive mix.  

The Seahawks were the only team to run the table at home, and two of the teams they beat there in addition to the 49ers were the New England Patriots (24-23) and the Green Bay Packers in that controversial 14-12 'Fail Mary' game that hastened the merciful end of replacement refs calling games.

But this playoff game will be at FedEx Field, it will be jumping, and we should be hearing 'Hail To The Redskins' when this close one is over.  

Redskins to win this one.

Dynamo 90 Minutes From Second Straight MLS Cup Final

The Men In Orange handled their playoff business last weekend at BBVA Compass Stadium and walked out of there with a 3-1 first leg MLS Eastern Conference Final win against DC United after trailing at the half 1-0.

The Dynamo head into this 3 PM CST second leg game at RFK Stadium in the enviable spot of needing only a win, draw or not losing by more than two goals in order to secure their second straight trip to the MLS Cup title game. 

If they do earn it, they will have to play in either Los Angeles or Seattle since MLS has changed the championship game format to where it is played at the home arena of the participating team with the highest seed.  And right now assuming things stay to form in the MLS Western Conference final it looks like the Dynamo will be getting a rematch against the LA Galaxy  

It's looking good for them right now, but they still have to play the and survive that match in front of DC United's rowdy fans before they can start making travel plans to either LA or Seattle and MLS Cup 2012.

 

Dynamo In MLS Eastern Conference Finals

While I'm waiting for the Texans to play Da Bears later tonight, I'll be rooting for our other football team that wears the orange jerseys, kicks a round ball around the soccer pitch and is trying to get to the MLS Cup final for the second consecutive year.

They knocked off Sporting Kansas City in their MLS Eastern Conference semifinal two leg playoff matchup by beating SKC 2-1 at BBVA Compass stadium last Sunday and then withstanding a furious SKC assault on their goal in the return leg match on Wednesday.  

SKC won the game in their park 1-0, but the Dynamo won the playoff series with a cumulative 2-1 score. 

That earned them a Eastern Conference finals matchup against one of the more storied teams in MLS in DC United, who have won four MLS cups but are in their playoffs for the first time in five seasons.   They are also on a little bit of a roll in terms of going 6-0-3 in their last nine matches and knocking off the New York Red Bulls in their semifinal series.  . 

But DC United faces a Dynamo squad that has been unbeatable at BBVA Compass Stadium (12-0-6) and has one of the best goalkeepers in MLS in Tally Hall.   DC United is also playing this game without goalkeeper Bill Hamid, who received a red card in the second leg against New York and the suspended for this series Andy Najar.

The Men In Orange also want a return trip to MLS Cup and if they win this series will face either the defending champion LA Galaxy or the Seattle Sounders.  

The league changed the format this year so that the team with the best record would host the MLS Cup game, and unfortunately should the Dynamo win, they would have to travel to either LA or Seattle in the attempt to win their third MLS title.

Either way, the Dynamo won't care where they have to go as long as they have the opportunity to win the MLS Cup       

Houston's Other Football Team Plays Tonight

My hometown has a second football team that is in the playoffs and going for a championship. 

Instead of wearing battle red, liberty white and deep steel blue, helmets and a lot of padding as they play their 60 minute games at Reliant Stadium to sold out crowds, they wear orange uniforms and kick a round ball around for 90 plus minutes over at a sold out soccer specific BBVA Compass Stadium in front of their passionate fan base.

I'm talking about the Houston Dynamo, our Major League Soccer franchise that has been quite successful ever since they started play here in 2005.  They not only won back to back MLS cup titles in 2006 and 2007, they are the defending Eastern Conference champions and played in the 2011 MLS Cup game last year.

They also became only the fourth MLS squad in the league's 17 year history to go through their home schedule undefeated and have a 27 match winning streak in games played in H-town dating back to last season.

The Dynamo struggled through most of the 2012 season and qualified as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, but they have a tendency to turn up their level of play when it's playoff time as they demonstrated last year.

The Men In Orange have already gotten their 2012 MLS playoff run off to a successful start by taking down the Chicago Fire 2-1 in their knockout round match played on October 31.

They play Sporting Kansas City, the team they knocked off last year to get to the MLS Cup championship match they lost to the LA Galaxy in their two leg Eastern Conference semifinal later tonight at BBVA Compass Stadium.   If they are successful in knocking off SKC, they will move on to the Eastern Conference finals against either DC United or the New York Red Bulls.

Let's Go Dynamo! 

2011 Texans Watch- Texans Season Over

Like most of the city of Houston I was tuned in to the Ravens-Texans playoff game in Baltimore to see if my fave NFL footballers could finally get their franchise first victory against the Ravens in their first road playoff game and move on to the AFC championship game against the New England Patriots.

Things were looking great from a Houston vantage point with the opening 60 yard kickoff return by Danieal Manning that led to excellent field position, an early 3-0 Texans lead and the first of the numerous three and outs forced by the 'Bulls on Parade' defense on the anemic Ravens offense.

But in a play that will live in Houston NFL playoff infamy and ranks right up there with the 1988 Oiler 'Stagger Lee' playoff game against Denver, Jacoby Jones inexplicably tried to field a bouncing Sam Koch punt deep inside the 15 yard line and muffed it, setting up the Ravens first TD and altering the momentum of the game.

The Texans found themselves trailing 17-3 in the first quarter before they flipped the script in the second quarter. The offense started riding Arian Foster's legs (Bob McNair and Rick Smith, pay the man) and began to sustain some drives and score to narrow the deficit to 17-13 at the half.  

The Texans defense continued to play lights out football.  They sacked Joe Flacco five times, held Ray Rice to 60 yards rushing and kept the Ravens offense in check. 

Their stellar play included a fourth and one stuffing of Ray Rice on the goal line to keep the Ravens out of the end zone in the third quarter, but they just didn't make that one play they needed on the offensive or defense side of the ball to get them the win.

The three TJ Yates interceptions didn't help in that regard either, but they were in that game until the Hail Mary that wasn't answered glanced off Kevin Walter's shoulder with 11 seconds left in the game and with that the Texans inaugural playoff run under some challenging circumstances and season ended with a 20-13 loss

Since it's King Day, I'm going to borrow his words to explain how I'm feeling in terms of my fave NFL team at this moment.  "We must accept finite disappointment, but we must never lose infinite hope."

The finite frustrations and disappointment of this loss will subside but I and other Texans fans have the infinite hope that we will finally see our team bring the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Houston.

If the Texans get either in the draft or free agency another cornerback so they can move Kareem Jackson to safety, a second speedy deep threat wide receiver or stud tight end to take some pressure off Andre Johnson, lock up Arian Foster and Mario Williams with contracts fair to them and everyone comes to camp in shape it's possible. 

A healthy Matt Schaub will aid those prospects immensely along with having defensive coordinator Wade Phillips here during the offseason to install even more wrinkles in the Texans 'Bulls on Parade' defense.

If the Texans stated goal for the 2012 NFL season is to ensure they are hosting AFC playoff games at Reliant Stadium they will have to go through a challenging schedule to get the 12 or 13 wins it will probably take to secure the AFC number one or two seed.   

The Texans will face the NFC North (Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota) in our interconference rotation. In addition to our home and away games with our AFC South foes (Indianapolis, Jacksonville and the Traitors) at Reliant Stadium we'll see Buffalo, Miami, Green Bay, Minnesota and the Ravens coming to H-town to play our defending AFC South champions..

The road schedule will have my fave NFL footballers putting on their liberty white road uniforms and facing New England, Denver, Chicago, Detroit and the New York Jets 
  .   

Something to think about Texans fans.  If they do make it back to the playoffs and through the AFC playoff bracket, Super Bowl XLVII will be in New Orleans on February 3, 2013 just a short 5 hour drive down I-10 east from here.

The 2012 NFL season starts in seven months and I can't wait..

TransGriot NFL Picks-Divisional Round Weekend

I got much of what I wanted during the NFL Wild Card weekend. 

I got to see my Texans play and post a 31-10 win in their first ever playoff game at Reliant Stadium against the Bengals. I also came close to being perfect on my NFL picks last weekend.

But close only counts with horseshoes, hand grenades and nuclear weapons and the Denver Broncos dropped an overtime bomb on the Pittsburgh Steelers that blasted them right out of the playoffs and nuked my chance to get all four games correct.

So I went 3-1.while Mike, whose picks are here went ouch, 1-3. 

It's the Divisional round, so let's see if I can get the sweep.this week.  It's going to be tough because the eight teams left in both the AFC and NFC brackets are all division winners keenly aware that a win in this round puts them in their respective conference championship games and one step closer to playing in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for the Super Bowl.

Three of the games with the exception of the Saints-49ers tilt are all regular season rematches and it's tough to beat a team twice. 

The Saturday games feature the 14-3 NFC South champion New Orleans Saints traveling to face the 13-3 NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers and the 9-8 AFC West champion Denver Broncos facing the homestanding 13-3 AFC East champion New England Patriots.  

On Sunday it's my 11-6 AFC South champion Texans playing their franchise first road playoff game against the 12-4 AFC North champion Baltimore Ravens and the 15-1 NFC North champion Green Bay Packers hosting the 10-7 New York Giants. 

New Orleans travels to number 2 seed San Francisco with a high powered offense and Drew Brees having a monster season.  They kicked up the record setting offense another notch in the second half at the Superdome to subdue the Lions in the wild card round.

The 49ers will be a tougher number four ranked defensive nut to crack   They have five All-Pro's playing on the Number one NFL defense in creating turnovers.  San Francisco's ground oriented attack is number one in the NFL in terms of keeping the ball. 

That will come in handy because in all my years of watching football I've never seen any high powered offense that can score points while occupying the bench.  The Niners will attempt to execute clock eating drives to shorten the game and try to score touchdowns while doing so. 

The Saints also have people that can play on the defensive side of the ball and like to blitz you all day long.  That's a problem for a young 49ers offensive line that has had trouble at times keeping opposing defenses off their quarterback Alex Smith.

The Saints however are 0-4 all time in road playoff games including that shocking upset loss to the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks last year. This is the Niners first playoff game since 2003 and they have lost six straight regular season games versus the Saints.

Somebody's futility streak ends today.  The Saints will take a close game from the 49ers and head to the NFC Championship game.

Saturday's nightcap features the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos who are huge underdogs in their Gillette Stadium rematch with Tom Brady and the AFC number one seeded New England Patriots.

This is a dangerous game for the Patriots who have exited the NFL playoffs early for the last three seasons and have a defense ranked last in the league.  But they attempt to make up for it by scoring points in prodigious bunches.

The Broncos just polished off the number one ranked defense in the league in Pittsburgh and will be coming into Massachusetts with a wave of confidence as a result of that 29-23 overtime victory  

They were also beating the Patriots early in that previous game in Denver 16-7 last month and running the ball at will until three second quarter turnovers were cashed in by the Patriots for 13 points that dramatically changed the complexion of the game and turned it into a 41-23 New England rout

The Broncos do have a defense that is quite capable of keeping Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and the vaunted New England offense out of the end zone.  If they can force the Patriots to kick field goals or the Broncos generate enough offense to keep Brady and company sitting on the bench for long stretches of the game, they might be able to pull off another Tebow Time miracle.

Naaah, I don't think so.  The clock strikes midnight for Tebow Time.  The Patriots win their first playoff game in three years and kick back to watch the Sunday game to see who they'll play in the AFC championship barring another unexplained miracle.

Moving on to Sunday, my hometown NFL footballers roll into M&T Bank Stadium again in their liberty white uniforms for a rematch with the number two AFC seeded Baltimore Ravens.  

Nobody outside Loop 610 gives the Texans a chance to win this game because of their rookie third string quarterback TJ Yates, their 0-5 record against the Ravens and the 29-14 loss they got saddled with back in October to help Baltimore post an 8-0 record at home.

However, despite the Texans committing zero turnovers they played their worst team game of the season that October day.  Arian Foster was held to 51 yards rushing, and they just lost All-Pro WR Andre Johnson and All-Pro LB Mario Williams to a season ending injury in the Pittsburgh game the week before. 

Connor Barwin, Brooks Reed and JJ Watt were not the quarterback sacking terrors they are now. The  offensive line did not have a good day against the Ravens defense as they allowed Matt Schaub to be sacked four times.

The secondary that day looked more like last year's unit that got toasted more than Quizno's subs.instead of the NFL's number 3 pass defense unit.  The Texans number two ranked defense has only given up four pass plays longer than 50 yards this season. Two of them happened in that first Ravens game.

Ricky Williams of all people rushed for 109 yards and a TD and Ray Rice after being held to 39 yards rushing in the first three quarters exploded for 62 in the decisive fourth quarter to finish with 101 yards for the game.. 

The Texans were so pissed off after that loss they went on a seven game winning streak that led to them clinching their franchise first AFC South title and playoff berth


The Ravens have a great defense with perennial All-Pro's Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs anchoring it but a so-so offense that depends heavily on Ray Rice.  Shut him down, put Joe Flacco frequently on his behind and make Billy Cundiff come out and kick field goals and you go a long way toward beating the Ravens  

The Texans also have a chip on their shoulder because they believe they're getting dissed by the national sports media. (They are) 

The best way to get that national attention and respect is beat the big boys.  Sooner or later the law of averages will catch up with my hometown NFL footballers and they will break through and get that first win against the Ravens. Our chances of doing that are better with Andre Johnson back in the lineup and what better time to do it than in the playoffs?
.  

Yep people, I'm picking the Texans to beat the Ravens in an upset and put a Houston NFL squad in its first AFC championship game since the Luv Ya Blue era in 1980.

In the final divisional round game of the day we have another rematch of a regular season tilt at Lambeau Field between the 10-7 New York Giants and the 15-1 defending NFL champion Green Bay Packers. 

The then unbeaten 12-0 Packers knocked off the 6-5 Giants 38-35 in a thrilling game that was won on a Tim Masthay kick as time expired and both teams are already talking smack to each other. 

The Giant want revenge for this loss.  The number one NFC seeded Packers also want some payback for the Giants ending their 2007 season in the NFC Championship game they hosted at Lambeau Field.   The Giants knocked them off during that run to an NFL title and upset the perfection chasing Patriots in the Super Bowl. .

It won't be easy for either team to get what they want.  The Packers behind Aaron Rodgers' 4,645 yards and 45 TD's have been flinging the football all season with a potent air attack, but their defense hasn't been as dominating as it was during last year's championship playoff run.  

The Giants have been on a roll lately themselves as they finished 3-1 down the stretch to take their division and Eli Manning had his best NFL season as he threw for 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns. 

He also has weapons such as thousand yard receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz along with Mario Manningham and unlike the Packers they can run the football.  The Giants defensive line is healthy and kicking butt as Atlanta found out last week but they will have their hands full in trying to slow down the elusive Aaron Rodgers and his own capable stable of receivers.  .   . 

This should be a tight ballgame that the Packers pull out in front of their faithful fans and get them one step closer to a repeat appearance in the.Super Bowl.